One of Russia's most alarming new weapons capabilities may be on the move soon.

Jane's reports that KBM, a state-owned armament company specializing in missile systems, recently presented its 9K333 Verba man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS).

At an arms fair this week, the company announced that the weapon had been cleared for export — although KBM designer Gen. Velariy Kashin would not reveal the foreign buyer or buyers.

Kashin described the 9K333 Verba as "the most capable" MANPADS ever developed, according to Jane's. Missiles are guided to their targets using a "three-channel optical seeker, which operates in the ultraviolet, near-infrared, and mid-infrared wavelengths," a feature that increases the weapon's accuracy and speeds up its target acquisition.

As Armament Research Services explains, the 9K333's targeting system is specially built to fool its targets' anti-missile systems: Because the warhead contains three infrared sensors that are constantly cross-checking against one another, it is "even harder for a target aircraft to disrupt the system using decoys." The missiles' "seeker" also allows projectiles to better distinguish between aircraft and heat pockets that might throw off a less advanced weapon's targeting system. 

The 9K333 can strike aircraft at up to 13,500 feet. The 9K38 Igla, a somewhat comparable system, only weighs about 27 pounds, making the 9K333 is an incredibly lightweight, mobile, and user-friendly tool for shooting planes out of the sky.
 

The 9K333's first export license is a potentially ominous development. Small-arms proliferation isn't quite as galvanizing an issue as, say, the possible spread of nuclear weapons.

But while a nuclear warhead hasn't been detonated for offensive purposes since 1945, MANPADS are one of the most democratizing weapons ever made, spreading antiaircraft capabilities to armies and militia groups around the world.

There are scores of irregular forces and terrorist groups that would love to get their hands on something like the 9K333, and that could use it to wreak havoc on US or allied targets.

Worryingly, it doesn't require all that much technical sophistical to down a low-flying aircraft with MANPADS that are less capable than the 9K333.

In the video below, rebels in Syria score a hit on an Assad-regime helicopter using a Chinese-made FN-6:

That weapon, which debuted in 2005, can hit aircraft at 4,000 meters, about 500 meters shy of the 9K333 Verba's ceiling. Though an older and less effective weapon than the 9K333, the FN-6's manufacturers claim that it has a 70% success rate against aircraft flying within range.

The video shows just how easy it is to operate these weapons: The Syrian fighters aren't performing any complicated on-the-fly calculations to figure out firing trajectory, and they don't have any apparent technical means of determining their target's altitude or speed.

They just point the launcher in the general direction of the enemy aircraft, quickly eyeball their target, and push a button — bringing down a helicopter that was probably orders of magnitude more expensive than the weapons system that destroyed it.

This encapsulates the danger of MANPADS, a topic that's always an important bit of subtext for any US debate over aiding nonstate groups.

These days, pretty much any able-bodied adult can learn how to take down an aircraft flying at near-commercial altitude, using a missile system that weighs less than 50 pounds and that can remain operable for decades.

In maybe the most notorious example of the danger of MANPADS, Stinger missiles that the US provided to anti-Soviet mujahideen in the '80s were later turned on American forces in Afghanistan. More recently, MANPADS looted from a Syrian government airfield may have ended up with ISIS fighters.

There's a vast range of dangerous end uses for any weapon. But MANPADS can deny a conventional force of air superiority and decisively shift battlefield momentum. And now Russia is developing perhaps the most advanced MANPADS in history and shipping it off to unknown foreign buyers.

As if that isn't alarming enough, there's evidence that the 9K333 may have already seen action with Russian-supported irregular forces in Ukraine.

A video from mid-2014 depicts members of the Vostok Battalion, a pro-Russian militia founded in Chechnya by Russian intelligence operatives that was sent into Ukraine last year, posing with the weapons.

Around the same time, pro-Kiev media claimed that a Ukrainian government plane had been shot down by a 9K333 outside of the separatist stronghold of Slaviansk.

The Ukrainian separatists have questionable trigger discipline as far as antiaircraft weapons are concerned — pro-Russian forces killed 295 people by shooting down a Malaysian airlines plane on July 17, 2014, likely with a Buk missile Moscow had provided the fighters.

Last year, Russia sent one of the most advanced shoulder-fired missile systems ever built to irregular military proxies that later proved themselves to be wildly irresponsible stewards of high-end weaponry.

Now a government reeling from EU and US sanctions is granting export licenses for sales of that system to undisclosed foreign buyers — something that could have untold consequences when the 9K333 inevitably falls into the wrong hands. 

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In order to deter potential adversaries, the US military must demonstrate its ability to wage war in the space realm, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work said June 23 in a speech in Washington, D.C.

The problem is doing so in a time of restrained defense budgets, he said at the GeoInt Symposium.

Russia and China have found a gap that they can exploit in the unlikely event that they would find themselves in a shooting war with the United States, and that is space, he said. It is a potentially vulnerable center of gravity of US power, he added.

"Obviously, we need to do something about this," he said. The first order of business is to make space systems more resilient, "If we fail to do this, the implications for national security will be quite profound."

Command and control, the ability to detect adversaries' ballistic missile launches, accuracy of precision guided munitions, communication links and nearly all intelligence data would all be held at risk, he said. President Obama has tasked the Defense Department with making sure this never happens, he added.

The two principles that the military must deter when it can and fight when it must come into play, he said. "We cannot credibly deter conflict if we are not prepared to fight, and we are not demonstrating our capability to win. And that means we must be prepared now to prevail in conflicts that extend into space," Work said.

The military and intelligence community have to work together to come up with new space doctrine, he said. They will need better warning against attacks on their respective systems. They must also develop more resilient architectures, including command centers that will allow them to fight through attacks.

"And together we must make sure that we counter adversaries' space capabilities, especially their [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] and their space-enabled precision strike," he said.

"Our post Cold War budget cuts are limiting our own ability to make technical investments," he added. 

Beginning in the 2016 budget, about $5 billion will be shifted to invest in intelligence and space communities' defensive and offensive capabilities, he said. "That doesn't sound like a lot, but in this budget environment, that was a big, big, muscle move," Work said. A goal of a new space strategic review being worked on is to find out if even more money will have to be invested, he added.

As for the budget climate, Work said he is more optimistic that sequestration will not return in 2016. "Three or four months ago I would have said, 'Man, I think we are headed for sequestration. I just don't see how we de-trigger it." But over the course of the last several months, things have changed," Work said.

One reason is the strong veto threat President Obama has made to Congress. He said he will not accept sequestration levels in any of the appropriation bills for the full year, and would not decouple non-defense discretionary [funding] from defense. "They both have to rise because sequestration levels hurt our nation in different ways." Congress can't simply give the Defense Department more money without doing the same for other agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security, State, FBI or other parts of national security outside the military, he added.

The Defense Department needs long term budget stability. "Budget instability is killing us," he said. "We are simply unable to make big moves because we are afraid to, quite frankly."

Indications are that both the Senate and the House would have the votes to sustain the veto, which might force Republicans and Democrats in both chambers to come together to make a deal, Work said.

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Russia is currently working on a new hypersonic missile, which can carry nuclear warheads and breach existing missile defense systems, according to military experts. The new weapon is part of Russia’s plans to modernize the country’s strategic missile force.

Russia is said to have spent several years developing the “Yu-71” missile, under a project codenamed “Project 4202.”

The missile is claimed to have a maximum speed of 11,200 kilometers per hour (about 7,000 mph or Mach 10), and is also said to be highly maneuverable. Russia has so far carried out four tests of the Yu-71, with the most recent test flight conducted on Feb. 26, Russia’s Sputnik News reported, citing a recent report by Jane’s Intelligence Review.

“This would give Russia the ability to deliver a guaranteed small-scale strike against a target of choice; if coupled with an ability to penetrate missile defenses, Moscow would also retain the option of launching a successful single-missile attack,” the Jane’s Intelligence Review report said.

According to the report, Russia could deploy up to 24 nuclear-capable Yu-71 payloads between 2020 and 2025. In addition, the country is also expected to develop the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile by that time, which could be used to carry the new hypersonic device, Sputnik reported.

The United States and China are also working on the technology needed to build hypersonic missiles, raising concerns about a new arms race among the world’s top three superpowers.

China has reportedly tested its hypersonic strike vehicle called “Wu-14,” which has been tested at least four times since January 2014. The weapon, which can carry nuclear warheads while travelling at 7,000 mph, can also reportedly neutralize the U.S. anti-missile shield.

The U.S., on the other hand, is said to have engineered a similar weapon, which can travel at Mach 5, or about 3,806 mph, Inquisitr reported.

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According to the latest reports stemming from the P5+1 talks, Iran is now insisting that UN sanctions on its ballistic missile program be lifted as part of a long-term nuclear accord.

In addition to further complicating already fraught negotiations, this development highlights the importance Tehran attaches to its missile arsenal, as well as the need to answer unresolved questions about possible links between its missile and nuclear programs.

Iran is believed to have the largest strategic missile force in the Middle East, producing short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, a long-range cruise missile, and long-range rockets. Although all of its missiles are conventionally armed at present, its medium-range ballistic missiles could deliver a nuclear weapon if Iran were to build such a device.

Early in the P5+1 negotiations, US officials stated that "every issue," including the missile program, would be on the table. In February 2014, however, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman stated, "If we are successful in assuring ourselves and the world community that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon," then that "makes delivery systems ... almost irrelevant."

Yet many observers remain concerned that personnel and facilities tied to Iran's missile program were, and may still be, engaged in work related to possible military dimensions (PMD) of the nuclear program. These concerns underscore the need to effectively address the missile issue as part of the UN Security Council resolution that will backstop the long-term nuclear accord now being negotiated, if it will not be dealt with in the accord itself.

Deterrence, warfighting, and propaganda

The Iran-Iraq War convinced Tehran that a strong missile force is critical to the country's security, and it has given the highest priority to procuring and developing various types of missiles and rockets. Missiles played an important role throughout that war and a decisive role in its denouement.

During the February-April 1988 "War of the Cities," Iraq was able to hit Tehran with extended-range missiles for the first time. Iranian morale was devastated: more than a quarter of Tehran's population fled the city, contributing to the leadership's decision to end the war.

Since then, missiles have been central to Iran's "way of war," which emphasizes the need to avoid or deter conventional conflict while advancing its anti-status quo agenda via proxy operations and propaganda activities.

Iran's deterrence triad rests on its ability to (1) threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, (2) undertake terrorist attacks on multiple continents, and (3) conduct long-range strikes, primarily by missiles (or with rockets owned by proxies such as Hezbollah).

Yet the first two options carry limitations.

Closing the strait would be a last resort because nearly all of Iran's oil exports go through it and Tehran's ability to wage terror has atrophied in recent years (as demonstrated by a series of bungled attacks on Israeli targets in February 2012). Therefore, Iran's missile force is the backbone of its strategic deterrent.

Missiles enable Iran to mass fires against civilian population centers and undermine enemy morale. If their accuracy increases in the future, they could further stress enemy defenses (as every incoming missile would have to be intercepted) and enable Iran to target military facilities and critical infrastructure.

Although terrorist attacks afford a degree of standoff and deniability, missiles permit a quicker, more flexible response in a rapidly moving crisis — for example, after an initial series of preplanned terrorist attacks, Tehran or its proxies might need weeks to organize follow-on operations. Missile salvos can also generate greater cumulative effects in a shorter period than terrorist attacks.

Indeed, missiles are ideally suited to Iran's "resistance doctrine," which states that achieving victory entails demoralizing one's enemies by bleeding their civilian population and denying them success on the battlefield. In this context, rockets are as important as missiles, since they yield the same psychological effect on the targeted population.

The manner in which Hezbollah and Hamas used rockets in their recent wars with Israel provides a useful template for understanding the role of conventionally armed missiles in Iran's warfighting doctrine.

Missiles are also Iran's most potent psychological weapon. They are a central fixture of just about every regime military parade, frequently dressed with banners calling for "death to America" and declaring that "Israel should be wiped off the map."

They are used as symbols of Iran's growing military power and reach. And as the delivery system of choice for nuclear weapons states, they are a key element of Iran's nascent doctrine of nuclear ambiguity and its attempts at "nuclear intimidation without the bomb."

Finally, while most nuclear weapons states created their missile forces years after joining the "nuclear club" (due to the significant R&D challenges involved), Iran will already have a sophisticated missile force and infrastructure in place if or when it opts to go that route.

This ensures that a nuclear breakout would produce a dramatic and rapid transformation in Iran's military stature and capabilities.

Iran's missle force

Iran has a large, capable missile force, with a likely inventory of more than 800 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.

These include single-stage liquid-fuel missiles such as the Shahab-1 (300 km range), Shahab-2 (500 km), Qiam (500-750 km), Shahab-3 (1,000-1,300 km), and Qadr (1,500-2,000 km).

Nearly all of them can reach US military targets in the Persian Gulf, and the latter two can reach Israel. These missiles, which include several subvariants, are believed to be conventionally armed with unitary high-explosive or submunition (cluster) warheads.

Additionally, Iran has tested a two-stage solid-fuel missile, the Sejjil-2, whose range of over 2,000 km would allow it to target southeastern Europe — though it is apparently still not operational. In a June 28, 2011, press statement, Tehran claimed that it was capping the range of its missiles at 2,000 km (sufficient to reach Israel but not Western Europe), implicitly eschewing the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles in a presumed bid to deflect US and European concerns.

Yet its Safir launch vehicle, which has put four satellites into orbit since 2009, could provide the experience and knowhow needed to build an ICBM. (According to a May 2010 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Safir struggled to put a very small satellite into low-earth orbit and has probably reached the outer limits of its performance envelope, so it could not serve as an ICBM itself.) In 2010, Iran displayed a mockup of a larger two-stage satellite launch vehicle, the Simorgh, which it has not yet flown.

Tehran has also claimed an antiship ballistic missile capability that it probably intends for potential use against U.S. aircraft carriers: the Khalij-e Fars and its derivatives, the Hormuz-1/2, each with a claimed range of 300 km. Yet it is not clear that these systems are sufficiently accurate or effective to pose a credible threat to U.S. surface elements in the Gulf.

In addition, Iran recently unveiled the Soumar land-attack cruise missile, which is reportedly a reverse-engineered version of the Russian Raduga Kh-55. It has a claimed range of 2,500-3,000 km, though it may not be operational yet.

The Kh-55 was the Soviet air force's primary nuclear delivery system.

Iran also fields a very large number of rockets, including the Noor 122 mm (with a range of 20 km), the Fajr-3 and -5 (45 and 75 km), and the Zelzal-1, -2, and -3 (with claimed ranges of 125 to 400 km). During the Iran-Iraq War, rockets played a major role in bombarding Iraqi cities along the border, and they are central to the "way of war" of Iranian proxies and allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

Tehran has built this massive inventory so that it can saturate and thereby overwhelm enemy missile defenses in any conflict. It would likely use such tactics whether its missile force remains conventional or becomes nuclear-armed, since conventional missiles could serve as decoys that enable nuclear missiles to penetrate defenses. Numbers would also enable Iran to achieve cumulative strategic effects on enemy morale and staying power by conventional means.

Finally, many of Iran's missiles are mounted on mobile launchers, and a growing number are based in silo fields located mainly in the northwest and toward the frontier with Iraq.

This mix of launch options is likely intended to impede preemptive enemy targeting of its missile force. The resources invested in this effort are unprecedented for a conventionally armed force, which indicates that at least some of these missiles would likely be nuclear armed if Iran eventually goes that route.

Nuclear connections

In the annex of a November 8, 2011, report regarding the nuclear program's possible military dimensions, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it possessed credible information and documents connecting Iran's missile and nuclear programs. These indicated that, prior to the end of 2003, Iran had:

• conducted engineering studies on integrating a spherical payload (possibly a nuclear implosion device) into a Shahab-3 reentry vehicle (RV);
• tested a multipoint initiation system to set off a hemisphere-shaped high-explosive charge whose dimensions were consistent with the Shahab-3's payload chamber; and
• worked on a prototype firing system that would enable detonation upon impact or in an airburst 600 meters above a target (a suitable height for a nuclear device).

Moreover, in 2004, Iran began deploying triconic (or "stepped") RVs — a design almost exclusively associated with nuclear missiles — on its Shahab variants.

Some experts (including Uzi Rubin and Michael Elleman) believe that Iran may have deployed the triconic RV to enhance the stability and thus the accuracy of its conventional warheads, and perhaps to achieve higher terminal velocities that could reduce reaction time for missile defenses.

But if Iran were able to build a miniaturized nuclear device, its experience in designing, testing, and operating missiles with triconic RVs could expedite deployment of this weapon. Indeed, David Albright claimed in his 2010 book Peddling Peril that members of the A. Q. Khan nuclear smuggling network possessed plans for smaller, more advanced nuclear weapon designs that might have found their way to Iran, though most experts doubt the regime's ability to build such a compact device at this time.

These reports underscore why Washington and its partners must insist that Tehran respond to the IAEA's questions about past engineering studies, design work, tests, and other elements of the PMD file prior to the lifting of sanctions.

They also highlight the need for a UN Security Council resolution (as called for in the Lausanne parameters) that would impose limitations on Iran's missile R&D work and threaten real consequences for those who assist Iran's missile program.

Failure to do so would signal tacit acceptance of activities that could enable Iran to deploy its first nuclear weapon atop a medium-range missile — an achievement that took most nuclear weapons states, including the United States and Soviet Union, about a decade to accomplish.

This development would in turn magnify the destabilizing impact of an Iranian breakout, while incentivizing other regional states to either take preventive action or move toward nuclear capabilities of their own before Iran crosses that threshold.

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A comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran could be just days away.

The US and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (the so-called P5+1) are set to work past a July 9 deadline during negotiations in Vienna, after working through an original deadline of June 30th. And though an anonymous source "close to the talks" has suggested that the P5+1 has only 48 hours to finalize a deal, it's unlikely that an agreement isn't closed in the near-term.

The talks have just benefitted Iran far too much up to this point. And the past few days have provided crucial evidence that Iran's negotiators understand just how dominant of a position they're in.

Arms embargo now part of talks...

On Monday, Iran reportedly demanded that the United Nations lift its arms embargo on the country during the talks. This was a canny move on Tehran's part: Russia, a member of the P5+1, is currently under US and EU sanctions over its annexation of Crimea and subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine.

Russia's also the world's second-largest arms exporter. An end to the embargo directly benefits a P5+1 state eager for a newly enriched and highly militarized weapons buyer, which is why Russia is keen on lifting the embargo as well. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov now says that the embargo is the "only ... big problem" remaining in the talks.

More importantly, Iran has seen the P5+1's negotiating position erode on a number of core issues, including the the right to enrich uranium, the operation of the once-secret and heavily fortified Fordow enrichment facility, and Iranian disclosure of its past nuclear-weaponization activities. Even during the joint-plan-of-action agreement, Iran was allowed to flout the agreement's oil-export caps without punishment. And in April, President Barack Obama admitted that Iran would have the option of constructing a nuclear weapon on a very short timescale after the deal's most onerous uranium-enrichment standards expire in 10-15 years.

Given Russia's economic interests and the P5+1's negotiating track record, Iran would almost be negligent in not attempting to extract additional big-ticket concessions. At this point, it makes little practical sense for the regime to simply pocket its existing accomplishments, as formidable as they've been.

...And ballistic missiles, too

Just as audaciously on Monday, Iran demanded the lifting of sanctions and other international restrictions related to the country's ballistic-missile construction.

Some experts have argued that the inclusion of ballistic missiles in the nuclear talks would only distract from the P5+1 objective of closing off Iran's pathways to an actual bomb. After all, Iran's long-range strategic missiles would be considerably less threatening under a deal that decisively blocked Iran's opportunities to go nuclear.

But the ballistic missiles are directly related to the issue. As Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote on Tuesday, Iran has fitted some of its Shahab missiles with payload chambers resembling those used on nuclear-capable missiles as recently as 2004. It has also reverse engineered its own version of the Kh-55, which was the Soviet air force's primary nuclear-armed cruise missile.

Although Iranian negotiators reportedly insisted they weren't connecting ballistic missiles and the arms embargo to the nuclear talks specifically, the fact that these demands were raised in the context of the talks — complicating the negotiations just days before a crucial negotiating deadline — suggests that Tehran is expecting an overall re-orientation of the international community's stance toward the country in a post-deal environment. The Iranian regime is already looking forward to having far greater international prestige and freedom of action once the nuclear issue is resolved.

The effect on oil

They have every reason to believe this will be the case. A nuclear deal won't just leave Iran with a developed and internationally recognized nuclear program, the ability to build a nuclear weapon within as little as eight months, and perhaps the most sophisticated ballistic-missile arsenal of any non-nuclear weapons state. Tehran also believes a deal will burst open the country's oil-export economy.

According to a Citibank research note from June 30, the bank "expects that the Iranian government will, for demonstration effects, pump as much as is humanly possible, spiking or surging production through an aggressive ramp-up" of oil production once export restrictions are removed.

The bank does not believe Iran can reach its oil ministry's stated target of increasing output by 1 million barrels a day within seven months of sanctions being lifted. But it does think that a post-deal Iranian ramp-up could increase Iranian production by around 600,000 barrels a day within six months of the end of sanctions, bringing Iran's daily oil production to around 4.2 million barrels a day. Citibank believes oil experts could "ramp up considerably" toward the end of the first quarter of 2016.

A Barclays research note on Thursday similarly predicted that Iran will increase its production and its export capacity by 1 million barrels by the end of 2016, assuming a deal is signed (see chart).

The US is eager for an agreement, and the regime reasonably envisions a future where the country is a mainstream member of the international community — and an economic powerhouse, to boot.

Iran is naturally trying to press its advantage as the talks come down to the wire. It'\s negotiators understand that the country is in a favorable position, so long as it signs a deal.

The one remaining question is whether Iran's supreme leader, the central pillar of a regime with a deep ideological animus toward the US, will allow that to happen.

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The proposed nuclear agreement with Iran calls for an eight-year ban on the sale of new conventionally armed missiles.

Like the fact the agreement permits conventional arms sales after five years, this has led to concerns that it might allow Iran to carry out a major military buildup in the future, aided by the fact that Iran could receive a substantial increase in its ability to fund such imports once sanctions are lifted.

One needs to be very careful about making such assumptions. Unlike its conventional weapons, Iran has already made significant progress in producing its own ballistic and cruise missiles.

It seems to have deliberately delayed some tests to give its missile efforts a lower political profile during the nuclear negotiations, but it already has a major missile force, is working on larger boosters and solid fuel systems, and seems to be seeking to develop a precision-strike capability for its conventionally armed missiles.

It is also clear that Iran has already had important technology transfers from North Korea and that it has been able to use its extensive network of purchasing offices and cover organizations to buy critical missile technology. There are far too few unclassified data to be certain of Iranian capabilities, and some speculation about intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs and its progress in precision guidance is just that — even though it is sometimes described as reliable intelligence.

Unfortunately, the US Department of Defense no longer publishes extensive unclassified surveys of missile developments, and far too much of the other data on Iran’s missiles confuse the accuracy of the guidance platform with the accuracy and reliability of the missile and use nominal warhead payload data without making it clear that the assumed payload is just that — and not a meaningful figure on the actual missile warhead.

These issues are addressed in detail a new CSIS study of the Gulf military balance. This study is entitled The Arab-US Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf, and it is available on the CSIS website.

Chapters VIII and IX of the study analyze the Iranian and Arab Gulf missile programs and progress in Arab Gulf, Israeli, and US missile defenses. Chapter X expands upon the trade-offs Iran faces in choosing between nuclear and conventional precision strike warheads, the impact of Israel’s current monopoly of modern nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and US options for extended deterrence.

It should be stressed that there are no reliable ways to predict Iran’s future missile developments, but several points need to be kept in mind in assessing how the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran does or does not affect its future missile capabilities:

• Iran is already a serious and growing missile power, has a steadily more sophisticated technology and production base, and has access to North Korean missile developments.
• It is far from clear that Iran will seek to buy entire missile systems from other countries eight years from the time the agreement goes into force. But it will be a steadily growing missile threat regardless of the nuclear arms agreement.
• Iran can probably acquire enough key technology through various cover organizations, under the guise of building its space program or by buying dual-use technology to make steady improvements in the accuracy and reliability of its missiles. The eight-year limit in the Iran nuclear arms agreement seems unlikely to have much impact on this aspect of Iranian capability.
• There is no valid way to estimate how soon Iran can shift from a missile force that largely lacks the accuracy and lethality to hit and destroy critical military and infrastructure targets with conventional warheads to gaining such a capability. It is possible — and perhaps even likely — that it will make major progress well before the eight-year limit expires.
• Iran already has considerable capability to use its other anti-ship missiles to carry out precision strikes against combat or commercial surface ships. Some are long range and land based. Iran’s missile threat needs to be viewed in broad terms, not simply in terms of the capability of its ballistic missiles to strike land targets.
• Iran already has armed Hezbollah with more accurate shorter-range missiles, as well as given it a much larger overall inventory it could use against Israel. It does not have to rely only on its own missile forces to present a more advanced threat.
• The Arab Gulf states — and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular — already have advanced strike fighters and are arming them with long-rang precision air-to-surface missiles. These forces are currently far more capable of doing critical damage to Iran’s key military and infrastructure targets than Iran’s current missile forces can inflict on the Arab Gulf states.
• The Arab Gulf states have only limited missile capabilities, and the Saudi ballistic missile force lacks the accuracy and lethality to do more than carry out retaliatory strikes on large area targets if Iran uses its missiles to attack Arab Gulf targets.
• Israel does, however, already have steadily improving theater missile defenses. The Arab Gulf states have steadily growing Patriot advanced capability-3 (PAC-3) point or limited area missile defenses, Qatar and the UAE are considering terminal high-altitude area defense (THAAD) theater missile defenses, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has approached the United States regarding possible purchase of an integrated missile defense system based on THAAD or Standard. The United States has also already deployed missile defense ships to the Gulf and can deploy them to support Israel.
• The United States has offered the Arab Gulf states “extended deterrence” in the past. This may be the time to guarantee that it will provide both nuclear extended deterrence if Iran violates the agreement and conventional extended deterrence if Iran develops and deploys precision-guided conventional missiles.

In summary, no one can dismiss the possibility that Iran will buy missiles from outside powers eight years from the time the nuclear agreement goes into force.

In broad terms, however, it is far from clear that this represents a meaningful security issue. Iran already is a serious and growing missile threat, the real world impact of the eight-year limit may well be negligible, and the United States and its allies need to act now to deal with the Iranian missile threat in ways that are likely to be largely independent of the Iran nuclear agreement.

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“In every major conflict in which the U.S. has been involved in the past 25 years, this has been the first weapon to rain down out of the sky onto primary targets.”

Several weeks ago, I attended a behind-closed-doors display of some of the awesome new technology the Defense Department is buying these days, where I heard the quote above from an insider in the world of defense. I got in the door with my retired Navy credentials — this party wasn’t for anyone.

And that’s no surprise, considering the secretive and highly profitable nature of what I saw.

Sometimes in life, you have to “be there.” Sometimes, you can only “be there” if they’ll let you in the front door. These points were never truer than at the recent, closed to the public meeting just outside of Washington, D.C., where defense industry and government reps met to discuss issues, needs, programs and much else.

To attend, you need to have a military-government-contractor connection. The public wasn’t invited. But I’m an old Navy Salt with over three decades in the Sea Service in my logbook, active and reserve. Been there; done that; and I still belong to Navy- and defense-related organizations.

Bottom line is that they let me through the doors and showed me some of the world’s most amazing tech, from the world’s most high-tech companies — one of which I’ll show you in a moment.

I met with reps from defense contractors included the biggest of big names — Boeing (BA: NYSE), Lockheed Martin (LMT: NYSE), Northrop Grumman (NOC: NYSE), and many more, all good investments in themselves. Company reps were approachable, willing to answer questions, go into details and talk nitty-gritty with an old salt.

Suffice to say, this behind closed doors meeting was worth the trip. Today I want to share one of the hottest techs I saw there; it’s amazing, really…

If you asked me to name the most important technologies in national defense today, few come to mind before the Tomahawk cruise missile, made by Raytheon (RTN: NYSE).

Now, I’m not hawk, but I’ve studied our adversaries, past and present. I was trained to hunt and destroy Soviet submarines and I was in briefly in the sand during Gulf War I. The option isn’t to be prepared for war or not — it’s a matter too important to be left to chance.

Which is why the Defense Department put it in the capable hands of Raytheon! As my meeting contact said above, this is our go-to option when conflict is unavoidable. And I saw this tech with my own eyes. I was there.

At SAS, Raytheon reps gave a comprehensive update on state-of-the-art advances regarding the Tomahawk, and wow… this is not the developmental version that I saw tested offshore California as a young naval officer, way back in the early 1980s.

Today’s Tomahawk is sleek, aerodynamic, long-range, “hard to see” on radar (if you know what I mean) and packs a 1,000 pound explosive punch. Even better, it’s basically a “wooden round” — not meaning it’s made out of wood, but it comes pre-packed into its launch canister, and then sails around on ships and inside submarines, awaiting programming and final firing command.

Tomahawk can pop from a submarine launch tube or “payload module” underwater (see above photo), or blast into the sky from the deck of a ship; then its turbofan engine kicks in and burns JP-10 fuel (same as the glorious SR-71 aircraft), as the missile zooms on its way to targets near and far.

Tomahawk is perfect for taking out fixed targets with ungodly accuracy — bringing home the late Senator Barry Goldwater’s quip about “lobbing one into the men’s room” of a certain building. More recently, the Navy and Raytheon figured out how to reprogram the missile in-flight, such that Tomahawk can (and has) hit a maneuvering target at sea.

Tomahawk is the “Transformer” of modern weapons, so to speak. It’s a mature, well-tested, highly evolved, very intelligent weapon. Recent advances give Tomahawk the ability to find its own targets with a seeker; and it’ll soon carry a new, multi-mission, “multi-effects” warhead with the ability to burrow down into buried bunkers, if that sort of military requirement rings any bells.

There’s always politics, of course. Budget people want to lower Tomahawk funding over the next two years; typical — take a program that works superbly well, and cut the budget. Yet Tomahawk has staunch defenders in the Navy and on Capitol Hill.

Long term, there’s just no substitute, so it comes down to whether or not you think that the U.S. “might” get into future conflicts over time — or “might” want to deter them with weapons that are better than the adversary’s. I think Congress will come around soon.

Then you can bet Raytheon will sell more Tomahawks, and service the ones in inventory. This weapon is just one reason, out of many, why Raytheon is well-positioned to deliver gains and dividends to the long-term investor.

In all the pundits’ talk about the S&P and the Nasdaq, the high-tech, big-money companies that protect our nation rarely get mentioned at all. But everybody knows that the U.S. government is spending a lot of money on defense these days. And what’s the old saying? Follow the money!

In this case, we’re talking about $495.6 billion.

That’s how much money the Department of Defense requested in the last fiscal year to meet the nation’s urgent defense commitments. And the lion’s share of this funding will go to publicly-traded companies you’ve probably never heard of.

Which gets us to my key point — if you haven’t been investing in companies that develop cutting edge mil-tech, you’ve been missing out!

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At the height of the Cold War, America's underground was rife with dozens of hidden nuclear-missile units.

Some of these systems contained Titan II missiles, which carried the largest single nuclear warhead of any missile of its kind before or since.

Titan II was a guided ballistic missile that was also the largest, most powerful nuclear weapons system ever deployed in the US. And it served one purpose: deterrence.

"The idea behind Titan II was to instill enough fear in the mind of the enemy to cause them to think twice about launching an attack against us," Chuck Penson, the archivist and historian at the Titan Missile Museum in Sahuarita, Arizona, told Derek Muller, the host of the YouTube channel Varitasium.

In his latest Varitasium episode, Muller takes us inside an underground base where one of these monster Titan II missiles still stands, and he learns about the insanely complicated steps it would have taken to actually launch this terrifying piece of human engineering in the event of an attack.

Inside the missile was a weapon with incredibly destructive potential — 650 times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

Therefore, it's no surprise that on the entry door into the silo, where the Titan II missile stands, there is a sign that reads "CAUTION."

Though the Titan II missile still stands, it no longer carries its dangerous cargo.

Among the more interesting features in the silo are the soundproof panels covering the walls. Without these panels to absorb the sound during a launch, the energy from the sound waves would actually shake the missile to pieces before it could lift off.

The Titan Missile Museum in Arizona, where this empty missile is located, includes the original site for one of the 54 underground silos across the country where deterrent missiles, such as Titan II, were hidden during the late 1950s and mid-'60s.

The control center with all of the gadgets, switches, and buttons — including those that would initiate a launch — is located far from the missile, beyond a series of long underground tunnels.

Another benefit, besides secrecy, to an underground launch site was that if the enemy successfully detonated a bomb in the US, the site's occupants would be shielded from the radiation as long as their base was not destroyed in the attack.

Once in the control room, Penson takes Muller through the multistep process of what it would have been like to launch a Titan II missile. First, the speakers in the room sound an alarm that is followed by a message with a series of random numbers and words.

This message should have reached them only if the US president had ordered it.

Everyone in the room copies down the message and compares notes, and if they agree on what they heard, then they go to a red safe — which is locked, of course — containing a series of what Penson calls "authentication cards."

Each card contains two letters. If one of the cards has the two-letter combination that matches the first two letters in the secret message transmitted through the speakers, then the control room is officially "go" for launch.

After that, you just have one more six-letter code and two keys separating you from World War III. But the six-letter code is on a wheel with 17 million possible combinations, and the key slots are far enough apart that you must have two people turning them at exactly the same time.

After you insert the six-letter code, the commander counts down to the final key turn. The commander and his partner hold the keys down for five seconds, and then a terrifying green light illuminates the "Ready to Launch" panel.

"For all intensive purposes that should say, 'Welcome to World War III,' because that's pretty much what it boils down to," Penson said. "When you turn the key you are committed. There is no 'oops' switch."

These precautions were taken to prevent a single person from launching a missile. After all, people can get pretty crazy and paranoid during times of war.

Though Titan II was never launched to prevent an attack on US soil, several of these missiles were launched. In fact, some were used to launch American manned missions through NASA's Gemini program to space.

Check out Muller's video below or on YouTube:

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NOW WATCH: 14 extraordinary rocket test failures that paved the way for NASA's space program

While the US is spends far and away the most on defense annually, US contractors the government buys from are increasingly looking outside of the US for sales. 

Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman have increased the amount of revenue they bring in from outside the US by nearly 10% in the last 6 years, according to RBC Capital Markets.

In 2008, contractors made an average of 15% of their revenue from international contracts.

By 2014, that number had increased to 24%.

Raytheon, the maker of missile systems like the Tomahawk, told Reuters after they reported earnings this quarter that 44% of their current backlog is from international orders and the company expects between 32% to 35% of annual orders to come from non-US buyers.

This also comes on the heels of a request last week by the Saudi Arabian government to purchase $5.4 billion of missiles from Lockheed Martin and a separate $1.6 billion purchase of missiles by 5 international governments also from Lockheed Martin. 

According to RBC, these companies may be turning to the international market in part due to the flatlining — and potentially shrinking — percentage of the US federal budget being put towards defense.

While the government does still spent about $581 million, about 36% of all global defense spending, the requested budget from the Department of Defense actually decreased from 2014 to 2015. 

RBC also notes that the Office of Management and Budget projects the percentage of federal outlays going to defense to start sliding over the next few years.

This could change, however, depending on the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.

So while its main customer starts to draw down the amount of defense spending, these contractors are looking outside of the US for sales.

SEE ALSO: 2016 could be a great year for defense stocks, especially if a Republican wins

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DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will sign a contract with Russia next week to buy four S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, the Iranian defense minister said on Tuesday, bringing Tehran closer to acquiring an advanced air defense capability.

Russian state arms producer Almaz-Antey in June said it would supply Iran with a modernized version of the S-300, among the world's most capable air defense systems, once a commercial agreement was reached.

"The text of the contract is ready and our friends will go to Russia next week to sign the contract," Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

Russia says it canceled a contract to deliver S-300s to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West. But President Vladimir Putin lifted that self-imposed ban in April following an interim nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

Tuesday's announcement came a day after Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Moscow to discuss the civil war in Syria, in which Tehran and Moscow support President Bashar al-Assad. Western powers and most Arab countries have called for Assad to resign as part of a peace deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the most vocal critics of last month's final nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, has expressed Israel's "dismay" at Russia's decision to supply the S-300s to Tehran.

Dehghan said Iran had initially planned to acquire three "battalions" of S-300 launchers, but had since increased its order to four.

He did not specify how many missile launchers would be in each battalion, a standard military grouping whose size can vary depending on nationality, equipment and role.

Pieter Wezeman, an arms expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said each battalion was likely to be an independent unit comprising a radar system, control system, and an unknown number of launchers.

"With four battalions, they should be able to deploy missile systems in four different locations," he said.

The S-300, first deployed at the height of the Cold War in 1979, can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles up to 300 km (186 miles) away.

Dehghan also said Iran was negotiating with Russia to buy fighter jets, in a likely attempt to upgrade its aging fleet of mostly U.S.-made jets for which it cannot obtain spare parts or upgrades due to long-standing hostility between the two countries. He did not provide further details. 

(Reporting by Sam Wilkin; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

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China conducted a flight test this month of its newest long-range missile that US intelligence agencies say lofted two independently-targeted simulated nuclear warheads, according to defense officials.

The launch of the DF-41 road-mobile missile Aug. 6 was the fourth time the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has been test-fired in three years, and indicates that the weapon capable of hitting US cities with nuclear warheads is nearing deployment.

The DF-41, with a range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles, is viewed by the Pentagon as Beijing’s most potent nuclear missile and one of several new long-range missiles in development or being deployed.

As with earlier DF-41 flight tests, Pentagon spokesmen had no direct comment. A defense official, however, told the Washington Free Beacon: “We do not comment on PRC weapons tests but we do monitor Chinese military modernization carefully.”

The Pentagon has said it expects the new missile to become operational as early as this year.

Deployment of the DF-41 also could coincide with China’s first patrols, slated to begin this year, of submarines armed with nuclear-tipped JL-2 missiles.

The Aug. 6 test is viewed as significant by US intelligence agencies because it confirmed the DF-41’s multiple-warhead capability, said defense officials familiar with analyses of the test.

Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the repeated flight tests indicate the DF-41 is “nearing operational status.”

“The mobile and solid-fueled DF-41 will be the second MIRV-equipped ICBM to enter PLA Second Artillery Corps service after the currently deployed, liquid-fueled and silo-launched DF-5B,” Fisher said.

“The bottom line is that China potentially is beginning a new phase in which its nuclear warhead numbers will be increasing rapidly,” he said.

The Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military, published in May, stated that the DF-41 is “possibly capable of carrying MIRVs”—the acronym for multiple, independently-targetable reentry vehicles. The Pentagon calls the DF-41 the CSS-X-20 missile.

MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) are considered state-of-the-art nuclear warhead technology because their use vastly increases the potential killing power of a single missile.

The annual Pentagon report states that China’s missile force, called the Second Artillery Corps, “continues to modernize its nuclear forces by enhancing its silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and adding more survivable, mobile delivery systems.”

When deployed, the DF-41 is expected to significantly enhance China’s force of between 50 and 60 ICBMs that include DF-5, mobile DF-31, DF-31A, and submarine-launched JL-2 nuclear missiles.

China’s first suspected multiple warhead flight test for the DF-41 was carried out in December 2014, when an unknown number of dummy warheads were thought to have been used. Earlier DF-41 flight tests took place in December 2013 and July 2012.

The new multiple-warhead missile is likely to renew debate over the size of China’s nuclear arsenal. Current U.S. intelligence estimates put the total number of Chinese warheads at around 240 warheads. Other analysts, however, say China’s warhead arsenal is far larger, with perhaps as many as 1,500 warheads, and base their assessments on the growing size of China’s missile forces, the addition of multiple warhead technology, and its large-scale nuclear material production capabilities.

The DF-41 is assessed by US intelligence agencies as being able to carry up to 10 warheads on a single missile.

The location of the latest test was not disclosed. Past DF-41 flight tests, however, were carried out from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Testing facility, located about 250 miles southwest of Beijing.

Little is known publicly or within the US government about China’s strategic nuclear arsenal, because Beijing has refused for decades to engage in international nuclear talks, fearing any discussion would reveal information that could undermine its deterrent forces.

The mobile DF-41 is considered especially lethal because it can be driven on roads and easily hidden prior to launch, making it difficult to target.

The Pentagon is developing a new system called Prompt Global Strike that will be designed to locate and destroy mobile missiles, along with other difficult-to-find targets, in 30 minutes or less.

According to a senior intelligence analyst with the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center, China’s shift to multiple-warhead missiles is aimed at ensuring the survival of its nuclear deterrent.

“MIRVs provide operational flexibility that a single warhead does not,” Lee Fuell, an analyst for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), told the congressional US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“Specifically, they enable more efficient targeting, allowing more targets to be hit with fewer missiles, more missiles to be employed per target, or a larger reserve of weapons held against contingency,” Fuell said.

China is expected to use a combination of three long-range missiles “as MIRVs become available, simultaneously increasing their ability to engage desired targets while holding a greater number of weapons in reserve.”

The China commission’s latest annual report stated the DF-41 could be deployed as early as 2015, and could carry up to 10 MIRVs with enough range “to target the entire continental United States.” The report added that the DF–5 and the DF–31A also are being modified to carry MIRVs.

Concerns over China’s multiple warhead missile attacks were heightened after Chinese state-run media in October 2013 published a report and graphic showing the effect of a submarine-launched, five-warhead nuclear strike on Los Angeles.

The series of articles made the alarming claim that Chinese nuclear attacks could kill up to 12 million Americans with blasts on the West Coast and deadly fallout that would then drift eastward.

China gained technology for launching multiple warheads from the United States during the Clinton administration. After the 1990s White House loosened controls on US exports of satellite technology, American companies, including Motorola, Space Systems Loral, and Hughes Electronics gave China valuable missile know-how.

A classified report by NASIC dated Dec. 10, 1996, stated that China copied a multiple satellite launcher, called a “smart dispenser” from Motorola that allowed China to launch several Iridium satellites from a single Chinese rocket booster.

“An initial NASIC study determined that a minimally-modified [smart dispenser] stage could be used on a ballistic missile as a multiple-reentry vehicle, post-boost vehicle (PBV),” the report said.

Lockheed Martin was fined $13 million by the State Department in 2000 for improperly providing China with rocket motor technology used to maneuver multiple-warhead vehicles.

In addition to the DF-41, DF-31, DF-31A, and JL-2 long-range missiles, China also is developing a near long-range system called the DF-31B.

The Free Beacon first disclosed the DF-31B in October after it was flight tested on Sept. 25, 2014.

The DF-31B is also expected to carry multiple warheads.

A U.S.-based Chinese media outlet, Duowei News, reported last week that China is expected to show off the new DF-31B during a World War II anniversary ceremony in Beijing set for Sept. 3.

In addition to nuclear ballistic missiles, China is also developing maneuvering hypersonic strike vehicles that travel along the earth’s atmosphere and can avoid missile defenses.

China’s government had no immediate comment to the latest test.

In December, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the DF-41 test saying it was a scientific exercise and was not targeting other countries.

Fisher, the China military expert, said the sharp increase in warheads is prompting new questions about whether China is seeking nuclear parity with the United States or eventually will opt for nuclear superiority.

Also, a larger warhead arsenal may signal China’s plans to jettison its self-declared defensive nuclear posture, and could signal that Beijing will eventually agree to coordinating nuclear strike plans against the United States with Russia, Fisher said.

“With their continued rapid development of multiple types of intercontinental, intermediate, and medium range nuclear missiles, it is clear that China and Russia have no intention of adopting the Obama administration’s dreams of achieving ‘nuclear zero,’” Fisher said.

“It is also time for the United States to reverse such policies that amount to unilateral disarmament and build a larger and more modern nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter both China and Russia.”

SEE ALSO: China's largest arms maker is trolling Russia's slick new battle tank

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NOW WATCH: China has been upgrading its military and is now stronger than ever

Iran unveiled a short-range solid fuel ballistic missile Saturday, an upgraded version that the government says can more accurately pinpoint targets.

The surface-to-surface Fateh-313, or Conqueror, was unveiled at a ceremony marking Defense Industry Day and attended by President Hassan Rouhani, who said military might was necessary to achieve peace in the volatile Middle East.

State television showed footage of the missile being fired from an undisclosed location.

The missile is a newer version of Fateh-110 and has a quicker launch capability, a longer lifespan and can strike targets with pinpoint accuracy within a 500-kilometer (310-mile) range, the report said.

U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed a landmark nuclear deal reached between Iran and world powers last month, has called on Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Iran says none of its missiles are designed for that purpose.

The resolution also contains an arms embargo against Iran for the next eight years, but it's not part of the historic nuclear deal. Iran has said it won't abide by that part of the resolution and Rouhani reconfirmed it Saturday.

"We will buy weapons from anywhere we deem necessary. We won't wait for anybody's permission or approval and won't look at any resolution. And we will sell weapons to anywhere we deem necessary," he said in comments broadcast live on state television Saturday.

Rouhani said Iran can't remain passive when instability has spread in neighboring countries.

"Can we be indifferent … when there are special circumstances on our eastern, western, northern and southern borders," Rouhani said, apparently referring to fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere in the region. "How can a weak country unable to stand up to the military power of neighbors, rivals and enemies achieve peace?"

SEE ALSO: The real reason the Iran secret side deal is so important

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NOW WATCH: China has been upgrading its military and is now stronger than ever

China debuted its new ballistic missiles during a military parade rehearsal earlier this week, IHS Janes reports. 

The missiles will most likely be shown off later this week during China's military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender at the end of World War II.

Janes notes that the practice parade featured the "DF-15B short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), DF-16 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), DF-21C MRBM, DF-26 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), the warhead section of the DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-31A ICBM, and the DF-10 land attack cruise missile (LACM)." 

All of the missiles were covered during the parade to conceal their technical details. However, the missiles' public appearance signals China's growing pride in their arsenal. Beijing's growing ballistic missile capabilities reflect the country's rapid military rise throughout the region. 

While China's conventional weapons capabilities are steadily improving, its growing mastery of ballistic missiles demonstrate how it continues to be a rising superpower. With the intercontinental ballistic missile DF-5B (CSS-4), China has the ability to deliver nuclear warheads nearly anywhere on earth (outside of South America, at least). 

The DF-5B has the largest range of any Chinese ICBM. The missile is nuclear-capable, according to the DoD report, and is housed in silos across the Chinese countryside. Beijing is estimated to have between 50 and 60 silo-based ICBMs. 

China has also re-engineered some variants of the DF-5B to be capable of being outfitted with multiple nuclear warheads. This modification is intended to produce maximum destruction while increasing the chances that a Chinese warhead could get past US missile interceptors, as each warhead could break off from its delivery system and aim for a separate target. 

The DF-31A has the second-longest range of any Chinese missile. It is capable of hitting the majority of the US' Pacific coast in addition to portions of the mid-West. Unlike the DF-5B, the DF-31A is a road-mobile missile. This means Beijing can move the ICBM to various points throughout the country to better target various locations and avoid possible incoming strikes. 

The DF-31 amd the CSS-5 (DF-21) are all also road-mobile and nuclear-capable. But unlike the CSS-4 or the DF-31A, these missiles are intended for regional deterrence against neighboring powers like Russia and India. 

Ultimately, China's focus on improving its ballistic missiles and its nuclear deterrent has been spurred by developments in countries that China might consider to be its strategic competitors. 

China modernized its missile forces because of "continued advances in the US and, to a lesser extent, Russian strategic ISR [Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], precision strike, and missile defense capabilities," a Pentagon report notes.

SEE ALSO: Every surface ship in the Chinese navy, in one chart

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China just held a massive military parade to mark the 70^th anniversary of the end of World War II. Organizers spared no expense.

The Beijing display reportedly featured 12,000 troops, about 200 planes and helicopters and around 500 troop carriers, rocket launchers, missiles and tanks.

President Xi Jinping also made a surprise announcement during the parade that the size of the Chinese military would be reduced by around 300,000 soldiers, but those cuts are a sign of transition more than one of weakness.

By 2020, China will have doubled its defense spending to $260 billion from $134 billion in 2010, according to analysts at research firm IHS. Only the U.S. leads China in global defense spending. And much as the U.S. is doing, China is shifting away from ground troops and toward high-tech naval and air assets.

All of which is why military analysts were keen to see the technological firepower on display in the parade; 84 percent of the weaponry China showed off was new or never before shown in public, including a missile known as an “assassin’s mace” that has generated heavy interest in military circles over the past five years.

The Chinese defense ministry has been silent about the missile up until today, other than to confirm in 2011 that the weapon was in development.

The missile, formally known as the Dongfeng 21D (DF-21D) but also known as the “carrier-killer,” is rumored to have a range of up to 1,000 miles and may be able to travel up to 10 times the speed of sound, making it virtually impossible to intercept once launched, according to the Financial Times (registration required).

The ballistic missile would be launched into orbit but can be maneuvered to a target once it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. 

Since China can manufacture 1,200 of the DF-21D for the price of one aircraft carrier, the missile could pose a threat to U.S. aircraft carriers in the event of a conflict. Even if the U.S. was able to shoot down or neutralize most of the missiles China fired at a carrier, one strike could alter the result of a battle.

Even though the U.S. indisputably has the largest and most powerful navy in the world, the capabilities of the missile threaten to limit the effectiveness of aircraft carriers, which form the bedrock of U.S. naval strategy.

Another frightening missile that been speculated about but never seen was the Dongfeng 26, nicknamed the “Guam Killer,” according toPopular Mechanic.

The DF-26 has the potential to reach U.S military bases on Guam with its range of 1,800 to 2,500 miles. The missile could also be a threat to U.S. carriers if equipped with an anti-ship ballistic missile warhead, due to its targeting capability.

The parade took place just days before the Chinese President Xi is set to visit Washington, D.C. to meet with President Obama. China may have been putting on a patriotic show, but it was also sending a message.

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NOW WATCH: China is ramping up its military with a show of force in and outside the country

China wants to be Asia's unquestioned military power and is rapidly upgrading its arsenal.

Beijing is developing next-generation fighter jets, ballistic missiles, and advanced naval vessels — partly in order to keep pace with the US.

The two powers are in a low-key arms race in east Asia. The US is currently engaged in a "pivot to Asia," focusing military and diplomatic attention on an increasingly important part of the world.

Meanwhile, China is trying to expand its territorial reach into the South China Sea, an effort that's bringing Beijing into recurring conflict with US allies like Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

And China is constantly building its military with a possible invasion of Taiwan in mind.

China has already become the world's second-largest military spender, behind only the US. Since 1995, China has increased its defense budget by 500% in real terms. 

Although China's military has a long way to go before it is qualitatively or even quantitatively at parity with the US, the country's development of high-end weaponry has been notable, and counts as one of the major geo-strategic developments of this decade. 

Here are some of China's fanciest new weapons — and how they could shift the balance of power in Asia.

SEE ALSO: The most game-changing weapons of the 21st century

Chengdu J-20

The Chengdu J-20 is China's fifth-generation fighter, its response to the US F-35 and the Russian T-50. The J-20 is a stealth aircraft that is currently in its fourth round of prototypes. 

The J-20 bears striking resemblance to the F-35 and the F-22, likely due to data theft and Chinese imitation of the designs of both planes. China may have stolen the design specifications needed to give the J-20 stealth capabilities that are on par with the F-35. 

Although the plane is estimated to have a striking range of 1,000 nautical miles, the aircraft itself is still reliant upon Russian engines and is in a relatively early stage of its development.

Shenyang J-31

The Shenyang J-31 is the other Chinese fifth-generation aircraft currently in development.

Unlike the J-20, which is heavily based on stolen American plans, the J-31 boasts an indigenous design. The plane is about the same size as the F-35 but has a smaller weapons bay — giving the J-31 improved fuel efficiency and speed at the expense of some firepower. 

The J-31 is also designed to be deployable to China's planned fleet of aircraft carriers. It would join the F-35 as the only two carrier-based stealth fighters in the world. 

The J-31 is scheduled to make its public debut at China's largest commercial and defense airshow in Zhuhai in early November.

Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark

The Shenyang J-15 is a carrier-based fighter aircraft that debuted in 2009. In a 2014 report to Congress, the Pentagon noted that the Fying Shark was conducting full-stops and takeoffs from China's Liaoning aircraft carrier with full weapons payloads. 

When operating from a ground base, the J-15 should have a combat radius of about 1,200 kilometers. However, since the Liaoning does not provide a useful catapult launch, the aircraft will have a reduced range while operating at sea, the Pentagon reported. 

The Chinese-produced J-15 is based on designs of the Russian Sukhoi Su-33. The plane is a Russian-type design fitted with Chinese radar, engines, and weapons. 

Russia is feeling increasingly limited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as the United States continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal and develop its ballistic missile defenses.

The United States also finds the treaty constraining, but neither Moscow nor Washington wants to be the first to withdraw from the pact.

Russia on Sept. 23 criticized the United States' planned deployment of upgraded B61-12 guided nuclear bombs to Germany, once again raising the threat of withdrawing from the 1987 INF treaty as a response to U.S. moves.

The INF bans ground-based nuclear or conventional intermediate-range missiles (500 to 5,500 kilometers, or 300 to 3,400 miles).

Though the U.S. deployment of B61-12 nuclear weapons to Germany does not violate the INF treaty, Moscow is increasingly viewing the pact as a limitation.

The INF pact is a cornerstone arms control treaty between the United States and Russia that halted a destabilizing buildup of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe during the 1980s. However, the treaty also constrained both U.S. and Russian options. Even as influential camps in the United States and Russia fear the treaty's dissolution and a return to a dangerous arms race in Europe, other voices in both countries desiring to abandon or revise it are growing louder.

The INF treaty has especially restricted U.S. policy in East Asia, forcing the United States to rely on air- and sea-launched missiles to counter China's vast and growing land-based missile arsenal. The Russians are even more concerned with the INF, because the treaty places them at a disadvantage relative to the United States in missile defense and modernized scalable nuclear weapons.

Furthermore, the INF, as a bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia, does not stop countries around Russia such as China, India and North Korea from developing intermediate-range nuclear weapons. Unlike the continental United States, which is beyond the range of these missiles, Russia has to factor in these potential threats even as the New START Treaty limits its strategic nuclear arsenal (in any case largely aimed at the United States). 

Frustrated by the INF treaty but fearing its dissolution, the United States and Russia have sought to find ways around it. Russia may have already breached the INF pact with the development of the R-500 ground-based cruise missile, as well as the testing of the SS-27 Mod 2 intercontinental ballistic missile at ranges prohibited by the INF treaty. The United States has also pursued other avenues to overcome the treaty's limitations, expanding its sea-launched missile arsenal, building up missile defenses and pursuing Prompt Global Strike technology that makes up for a longer-ranged strike envelope with high speed and accuracy.

Russia and the United States are each hesitant to be the first to withdraw from the INF pact, but it is clear thatthe treaty as a whole is weakening as time passes. Threats of withdrawal from the treaty, especially from Moscow, are becoming more common, and it may be just a matter of time until the treaty is effectively terminated or heavily revised. The demise of the foundational arms control treaty may give both sides more military options, but it will undoubtedly exacerbate an already tense relationship between Moscow and Washington.

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A senior Iranian military leader warned this weekend that “all US military bases in the Middle East are within the range of” Iran’s missiles and emphasized that the Islamic Republic will continue to break international bans on the construction of ballistic missiles.

Much of this missile work, like the details of Iran’s advanced arsenal, remains secret, according to Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force.

Hajizadeh dismissed the threat of military action by the United States, warning that all US assets and allies are in range of Iran’s current missile arsenal, according to comments made Sunday in Tehran and recorded by Iran’s state-controlled Fars News Agency.

The threats of attack on the United States were issued as Iran unveiled new high-tech torpedoes and the formation of a joint war room along with Russia, Syria, and Iraq.

“Some of the threats by the US are aimed at appeasing the Zionists, while others are for the purpose of domestic consumption (in the US), but what is important is that they are aware of and acknowledge our capabilities and deterrence power,” Hajizadeh was quoted as saying.

“We do not feel any need to increase the range of our missiles and (our perceived enemy) targets are fully within the range of our missiles,” he added.

Iran will not slow down the research and construction of advanced missiles, the IRGC leader said, despite international bans on such action.

“We do not see any restriction for our missiles and the IRGC’s preparedness and missile drills are conducted without a halt and according to our annual time-table, but only some of them are publicized through the media,” Hajizadeh said.

The comments echo those of IRGC Navy Commander Ali Fadavi, who warned last month that “the US knows the damages of any war and firing bullets in the Persian Gulf.”

“The US is obedient and passive in the Persian Gulf and we impose our sovereignty right in the Persian Gulf very powerfully,” Fadavi said.

The Pentagon confirmed to the Washington Free Beacon last month that Iranian warships confront the U.S. Navy on a “daily basis.”

Iran’s renewed war rhetoric and anti-US posturing comes amid reports that Iran and Russia have taken the lead in Syria, where both countries are working to bolster the embattled President Bashar al-Assad.

A senior Iranian official disclosed over the weekend that Iran, Russia, Syrian, and Iraq are working on forming a joint war room to coordinate operations in the region.

The so-called “information exchange center” would be the first step in formalizing a joint operations center to coordinate military efforts in Syria and elsewhere, according to political adviser to Iraq Mohsen Hakim, head of the country’s Islamic Supreme Council.

“The information center has been formed some days ago after six months of discussions,” Hakim was quoted as telling Fars.

Information obtained by this operations center would be disseminated to officials from each participating country, according to Hakim, including the Russian and Syrian armies.

“Hakim underlined that the information center can be a preliminary step to set up a joint operations room or Centcom,” Fars reported.

Meanwhile, Iran unveiled a new high-tech torpedo that it claims can hit targets both in and out of the water. The technology for the missile has been borrowed from the Russians, according to Iranian officials who spoke to Fars.

SEE ALSO: Iran-backed Iraqi militias are pouring into Syria

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A report from the Dutch Safety Board has concluded that a Russian-made missile struck Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, killing all 298 people on board.

The Dutch Prime Minister has asked for Russia's cooperation in a criminal investigation of the incident.

Produced by Lamar Salter

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Iranian state television has shared images of an underground missile base in an unprecedented broadcast.

The base is located 1,640 feet (500 meters) underground, according to BBC World journalist Mehrzad Kohanrouz. The first media images of a subterranean Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps rocket base come only three days after Iran tested a new precision-guided ballistic missile.

"The Emad missile is able to strike targets with a high level of precision" and destroy them, the state news agency IRNA quoted Hossein Dehghan, the Iranian defense minister, as saying.

The footage of the Iranian missile base shows long tunnels packed with missiles, hardware, and numerous Iranian soldiers. The tunnel shown on Iranian TV is only one of many such bases throughout Iran, Iranian Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC's aerospace division, said.

"The Islamic republic's long-range missile bases are stationed and ready under the high mountains in all the country's provinces and cities," Hajizadeh said, according to a translation from AFP.

The underground missile bases limit the ability of spy satellites to pinpoint the location of Iranian arms caches. They are also difficult to destroy from the air using most conventional weaponry.

Hajizadeh also boasted that while Iran was unwilling to start any wars itself, "If enemies make a mistake, missile bases will erupt like a volcano from the depth of earth."

The White House has said Iran's testing of the Emad missile most likely violated a UN Security Council Resolution and that it will "engage a strategy to try to disrupt continued progress of their ballistic missile program."

You can see the broadcast below:

SEE ALSO: Iran is reportedly spending billions on military hardware from Russia and China

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NOW WATCH: Startling facts about World War II

A day after approving a nuclear deal with major world powers, Iran released a video of an underground missile facility, amid reports that it has been testing a new generation of long-range ballistic missiles.

The eerie video, which includes footage of missiles mounted on launch vehicles and military personnel milling about, is believed to be an attempt to prove that the nuclear deal won't weaken Iran militarily.

According to CNN, the tunnel is 1,640 feet underground, and, according to Iran, one of hundreds spread out across the country.

Story by Tony Manfred and editing by Chelsea Pineda.

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